Timely identification of optimal control strategies for emerging infectious diseases☆
Identifieur interne : 002988 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 002987; suivant : 002989Timely identification of optimal control strategies for emerging infectious diseases☆
Auteurs : Zhilan Feng [États-Unis] ; Yiding Yang [États-Unis] ; Dashun Xu [États-Unis] ; Pei Zhang [États-Unis] ; Mary Mason Mccauley [États-Unis] ; John W. Glasser [États-Unis]Source :
- Journal of Theoretical Biology [ 0022-5193 ] ; 2009.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Facteurs temps, Flambées de maladies (), Humains, Lutte contre l'infection (), Maladies transmissibles émergentes (), Maladies transmissibles émergentes (transmission), Modèles théoriques, Quarantaine, Santé publique, Simulation numérique, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (), Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (transmission), Traçage des contacts, Virus du SRAS (pathogénicité).
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Communicable Diseases, Emerging (prevention & control), Communicable Diseases, Emerging (transmission), Computer Simulation, Contact Tracing, Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Humans, Infection Control (methods), Models, Theoretical, Public Health, Quarantine, SARS Virus (pathogenicity), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (prevention & control), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (transmission), Time Factors.
- MESH :
- methods : Infection Control.
- pathogenicity : SARS Virus.
- prevention & control : Communicable Diseases, Emerging, Disease Outbreaks, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- transmission : Communicable Diseases, Emerging, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
- Computer Simulation, Contact Tracing, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Public Health, Quarantine, Time Factors.
Abstract
Health authorities must rely on quarantine, isolation, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain outbreaks of newly emerging human diseases.
We modeled a generic disease caused by a pathogen apparently transmitted by close interpersonal contact, but about which little else is known. In our model, people may be infectious while incubating or during their prodrome or acute illness. We derived an expression for
Stage-specific infection rate estimates from cases hospitalized before quarantine began exceed those from the entire outbreak, but are qualitatively similar: infectiousness was negligible until symptom onset, and increased 10-fold from prodrome to acute illness. Given such information, authorities might instead have emphasized a strategy whose efficiency more than compensates for any possible reduction in efficacy.
In future outbreaks of new human diseases transmitted via close interpersonal contact, it should be possible to identify the optimal intervention early enough to facilitate effective decision-making.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.03.006
PubMed: 19289133
PubMed Central: 7126620
Affiliations:
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type="state">Indiana</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yiding" sort="Yang, Yiding" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yiding" last="Yang">Yiding Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 150 North University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 150 North University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Indiana</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Dashun" sort="Xu, Dashun" uniqKey="Xu D" first="Dashun" last="Xu">Dashun Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 150 North University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 150 North University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Indiana</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Pei" sort="Zhang, Pei" uniqKey="Zhang P" first="Pei" last="Zhang">Pei Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 150 North University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 150 North University Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Indiana</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mccauley, Mary Mason" sort="Mccauley, Mary Mason" uniqKey="Mccauley M" first="Mary Mason" last="Mccauley">Mary Mason Mccauley</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2">National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, NE Atlanta, GA 30333, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, NE Atlanta, GA 30333</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Glasser, John W" sort="Glasser, John W" uniqKey="Glasser J" first="John W." last="Glasser">John W. Glasser</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2">National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, NE Atlanta, GA 30333, USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, NE Atlanta, GA 30333</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Theoretical Biology</title><idno type="ISSN">0022-5193</idno><idno type="eISSN">1095-8541</idno><imprint><date when="2009">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Diseases, Emerging (prevention & control)</term><term>Communicable Diseases, Emerging (transmission)</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Contact Tracing</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infection Control (methods)</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Quarantine</term><term>SARS Virus (pathogenicity)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (prevention & control)</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (transmission)</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Flambées de maladies ()</term><term>Humains</term><term>Lutte contre l'infection ()</term><term>Maladies transmissibles émergentes ()</term><term>Maladies transmissibles émergentes (transmission)</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Quarantaine</term><term>Santé publique</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère ()</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère (transmission)</term><term>Traçage des contacts</term><term>Virus du SRAS (pathogénicité)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Infection Control</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogenicity" xml:lang="en"><term>SARS Virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogénicité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Virus du SRAS</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Diseases, Emerging</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Diseases, Emerging</term><term>Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Contact Tracing</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Public Health</term><term>Quarantine</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Flambées de maladies</term><term>Humains</term><term>Lutte contre l'infection</term><term>Maladies transmissibles émergentes</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Quarantaine</term><term>Santé publique</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère</term><term>Traçage des contacts</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>Health authorities must rely on quarantine, isolation, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain outbreaks of newly emerging human diseases.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>We modeled a generic disease caused by a pathogen apparently transmitted by close interpersonal contact, but about which little else is known. In our model, people may be infectious while incubating or during their prodrome or acute illness. We derived an expression for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" altimg="si1.gif" overflow="scroll"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>ℜ</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the reproduction number, took its partial derivatives with respect to control parameters, and encoded these analytical results in a user-friendly Mathematica™ notebook. With biological parameters for SARS estimated from the initial case series in Hong Kong and infection rates from hospitalizations in Singapore, we determined <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" altimg="si2.gif" overflow="scroll"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>ℜ</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>'s sensitivity to control parameters.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Stage-specific infection rate estimates from cases hospitalized before quarantine began exceed those from the entire outbreak, but are qualitatively similar: infectiousness was negligible until symptom onset, and increased 10-fold from prodrome to acute illness. Given such information, authorities might instead have emphasized a strategy whose efficiency more than compensates for any possible reduction in efficacy.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>In future outbreaks of new human diseases transmitted via close interpersonal contact, it should be possible to identify the optimal intervention early enough to facilitate effective decision-making.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Day, T" uniqKey="Day T">T. Day</name></author><author><name sortKey="Park, A" uniqKey="Park A">A. Park</name></author><author><name sortKey="Madras, N" uniqKey="Madras N">N. Madras</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gumel, A" uniqKey="Gumel A">A. Gumel</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J. Wu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Feng, Z" uniqKey="Feng Z">Z. 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Quine</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ullian, J S" uniqKey="Ullian J">J.S. Ullian</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rosner, F" uniqKey="Rosner F">F. Rosner</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tan, C C" uniqKey="Tan C">C.C. Tan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tsang, K W" uniqKey="Tsang K">K.W. Tsang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ho, P L" uniqKey="Ho P">P.L. Ho</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ooi, G C" uniqKey="Ooi G">G.C. Ooi</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J. Wallinga</name></author><author><name sortKey="Teunis, P" uniqKey="Teunis P">P. Teunis</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wearing, H J" uniqKey="Wearing H">H.J. Wearing</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rohani, P" uniqKey="Rohani P">P. Rohani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Keeling, M J" uniqKey="Keeling M">M.J. Keeling</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li><li>Indiana</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Indiana"><name sortKey="Feng, Zhilan" sort="Feng, Zhilan" uniqKey="Feng Z" first="Zhilan" last="Feng">Zhilan Feng</name></region><name sortKey="Glasser, John W" sort="Glasser, John W" uniqKey="Glasser J" first="John W." last="Glasser">John W. Glasser</name><name sortKey="Mccauley, Mary Mason" sort="Mccauley, Mary Mason" uniqKey="Mccauley M" first="Mary Mason" last="Mccauley">Mary Mason Mccauley</name><name sortKey="Xu, Dashun" sort="Xu, Dashun" uniqKey="Xu D" first="Dashun" last="Xu">Dashun Xu</name><name sortKey="Yang, Yiding" sort="Yang, Yiding" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yiding" last="Yang">Yiding Yang</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Pei" sort="Zhang, Pei" uniqKey="Zhang P" first="Pei" last="Zhang">Pei Zhang</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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